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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans rising together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still